Non-OPEC output slows, but global supply remains larger than in early 2013
13 February 2014
Global supplies fell by 290 000 barrels a day (290 kb/d) in January, to 92.1 million barrels a day (mb/d), on lower non‐OPEC output, the IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) for February reported Thursday. Year on year, however, supplies were up 1.5 mb/d, as steep growth of 1.9 mb/d in non‐OPEC output and OPEC natural gas liquids from January 2013 surpassed a drop of 390 kb/d in OPEC crude production. Forecast non‐OPEC supply growth for 2014 is unchanged at 1.7 mb/d.
OPEC crude oil supply rose marginally in January, by 85 kb/d, to 29.99 mb/d, with a downturn in production from Iraq offset by a partial recovery in Libyan output. The “call on OPEC crude and stock change” is unchanged at 29 mb/d for the current quarter but has been raised by 0.2 mb for the remainder of the year on higher forecast demand.
OECD oil demand growth rebounded in the second half of last year, but non‐OECD countries still accounted for more than 90% of global growth of 1.2 mb/d for 2013 as a whole, and will make up all of the 1.3 mb/d increase forecast for 2014, as the OECD resumes its structural decline. Demand growth is expected to accelerate in 2014 in line with the broader economy.
Total OECD industry stocks plummeted by a further 56.8mb in December, taking OECD stock draws for the final quarter to 1.5 mb/d, the steepest quarterly decline since the end of 1999. At 2 559 million barrels (mb), total OECD oil stocks stood 103 mb below their five-year average at the end of December, while product stocks covered 28.8 days of forward demand.
Global refinery crude runs are set to fall by 2.8 mb/d from December through April on seasonal plant maintenance. But year on year, global throughputs are set to grow by 1.1 mb/d in the current quarter to average 76.6 mb/d, led by the United States, China, Russia and the Middle East.
The Oil Market Report (OMR) is a monthly International Energy Agency publication which provides a view of the state of the international oil market and projections for oil supply and demand 12-18 months ahead. To subscribe, click here.
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