Non-OPEC output slows, but global supply remains larger than in early 2013
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13 February 2014
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Global supplies fell by 290 000 barrels a day (290 kb/d) in January, to 92.1 million barrels a day (mb/d), on lower non‐OPEC output, the IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) for February reported Thursday. Year on year, however, supplies were up 1.5 mb/d, as steep growth of 1.9 mb/d in non‐OPEC output and OPEC natural gas liquids from January 2013 surpassed a drop of 390 kb/d in OPEC crude production. Forecast non‐OPEC supply growth for 2014 is unchanged at 1.7 mb/d.
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OPEC crude oil supply rose marginally in January, by 85 kb/d, to 29.99 mb/d, with a downturn in production from Iraq offset by a partial recovery in Libyan output. The “call on OPEC crude and stock change” is unchanged at 29 mb/d for the current quarter but has been raised by 0.2 mb for the remainder of the year on higher forecast demand.
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OECD oil demand growth rebounded in the second half of last year, but non‐OECD countries still accounted for more than 90% of global growth of 1.2 mb/d for 2013 as a whole, and will make up all of the 1.3 mb/d increase forecast for 2014, as the OECD resumes its structural decline. Demand growth is expected to accelerate in 2014 in line with the broader economy.
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Total OECD industry stocks plummeted by a further 56.8mb in December, taking OECD stock draws for the final quarter to 1.5 mb/d, the steepest quarterly decline since the end of 1999. At 2 559 million barrels (mb), total OECD oil stocks stood 103 mb below their five-year average at the end of December, while product stocks covered 28.8 days of forward demand.
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Global refinery crude runs are set to fall by 2.8 mb/d from December through April on seasonal plant maintenance. But year on year, global throughputs are set to grow by 1.1 mb/d in the current quarter to average 76.6 mb/d, led by the United States, China, Russia and the Middle East.
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The Oil Market Report (OMR) is a monthly International Energy Agency publication which provides a view of the state of the international oil market and projections for oil supply and demand 12-18 months ahead. To subscribe, click here.
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Photo: © Shutterstock.com
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source: IEA